Prediction Accuracy Report
Monthly breakdown of Signal Confirmed flags and subsequent creator growth. Tracks how often Veltrace's Signal Confirmed signal correctly preceded accelerating subscriber growth in the 30 days after the flag.
Total flags analysed
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Signal Confirmed events
Overall hit rate
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Accelerating growth confirmed
Months tracked
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Since launch
Best month
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Hit rate
Monthly hit rate
Percentage of Signal Confirmed flags that preceded accelerating growth
Monthly breakdown
All months since launch
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Methodology note
A creator is counted as a Signal Confirmed flag in month M when their first deal signal score with conviction = HIGH is recorded.
Accelerating growth is defined as: the daily subscriber growth rate in the 30 days after the flag is at least 20% higher than the daily growth rate in the 30 days before the flag. Daily growth rate is computed from metric_snapshots (subscriber_count metric). Creators with fewer than 5 subscriber snapshots in either window are excluded from the hit rate calculation (marked as Insufficient data).
This is the internal proof document. It compounds in value every month as more creator trajectories resolve.
A creator is counted as a Signal Confirmed flag in month M when their first deal signal score with conviction = HIGH is recorded.
Accelerating growth is defined as: the daily subscriber growth rate in the 30 days after the flag is at least 20% higher than the daily growth rate in the 30 days before the flag. Daily growth rate is computed from metric_snapshots (subscriber_count metric). Creators with fewer than 5 subscriber snapshots in either window are excluded from the hit rate calculation (marked as Insufficient data).
This is the internal proof document. It compounds in value every month as more creator trajectories resolve.